12-17-14 NBA PICKS

Best Bets Season Record 59% 81-137

All Games Season Record 58% 139-240

BEST BETS

Hawks +6

No Jeff Teague, but also maybe no Kevin Love! The game is 98-96 Hawks on paper. The Hawks are 6-1 in their last 7 on one day’s rest! I’m just a a big supporter of the Hawks they are underfollowed & undervalued, Horford, Millsap, & Korver will do damage. I don’t like the prospect of no Teague but the points & maybe no Kevin Love balance that out!

Bucks + 9.5

The Bucks just beat the Suns & Clipppers on the road & Portland is out Robin Lopez. Granted the Bucks have some injuries too but nothing crazy. The Bucks have been hitting better field goals and outscoring but the Trailblazers have home and outrebound- but playing without Lopez is a huge adjustment and 9.5-10 points is way too much for a team that just won two big games.

Nets +12.5

Spurs -3.5

Phoenix -2.5

Magic +4

THE OTHER GAMES

Heat -4

Pacers +11

Mavericks -7

Rockets -2

capperwatchdog

12-13-14 NBA PICKS

Best Bets Season Record 59% 79-134

All Games Season Record 58% 134-233

BEST BETS

Bucks +6

On paper the home away stats read 101-99, the Clippers just took an L and the trend is your friend- hopefully. The field goal percentages are neck & neck along with three pointers, the Bucks outrebound vs. the Clippers offense by about 3. The Clippers are an extended road trip & the Bucks are getting 6 at home why not!

Hawks -3

On paper it’s 96-86 Hawks- Vucevic is out for the Magic and that’s gonna cause a major matchup issue in the backcourt for the Magic.

Nets +4

Nets will improve without Lopez- Plumlee will take care of business on both sides of the floor and grab way more boards. Hustle and ambition go a long way. Take the Nets back to back with Johnson back. They won with Derrin Williams going 0-8 I bet he rebounds from that performance last night, not to neglect the fact he did have 10 assists.

THE OTHER GAMES

Pistons +5

Pacers +5

76ers +11

Rockets -8

capperwatchdog

12-12-14 NBA PICKS

Best Bets Season Record 60% 78-131

All Games Season Record 58% 133-230

BEST BETS

Clippers -2.5

The clippers are a much better squad and the Wizards are overrated. The only two decent teams they played the Hawks & Cavs beat em! The Wizards only three. advantages are having Nene back, being home and outrebounding by about three. The Clipppers are on fire and have beaten better teams. Both teams faced the Pelicans- when doing so the Wizards squeaked out a 3 point win vs. the Clipppers 20 point win. The Clippers should school them so long as everyone is healthy.

Pacers +9

On paper it’s 106-100 the Pacers have just played five great teams back to back to back and the Raptors may be in for a surprise. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS playing on the road vs. teams with a home winning record. I see the Pacers possibly winning or at least covering the hefty +9.

Nets -7

If Johnson is back & healthy the Nets should do it- and I hate to say it but without Garnett & Lopez the team always plays better. Brooklyn at home to make up for all their sins by bullying the 76ers. The stats look bad but this is a situational game I think the Nets will take advantage of.

THE OTHER GAMES

Stay away from!

capperwatchdog

12-11-14 NBA PICKS

Best Bets Season Record 59% 76-129 All Games Season Record 58% 131-228 BEST BETS Rockets -1 Rockets should rebound after a loss, the Kings lost to the Lakers which isn’t a good sign of what they can do without Cousins. Over the last five game both teams are holding opponents to 102 but Houston scores 106 a game vs. the Kings 100! Not to mention over the last five the Rockets earned those stats vs. the Warriors, Suns, Grizzlies, & Bucks vs. the Kings on Lakers, Jazz, Magic, Pacers, & injured Raptors. Other stats are neck & neck but Rockets without Howard are still outrebounding by 6- pretty big gap here! Thunder -2.5 Over the last five games both teams are putting up 104 & holding teams to 95! For a game total that looks like 100-100 & the O/U is 205! Still a risky prop. Offense to defense both pretty much tie their FGs at 46% & threes at 29%. The Thunder do outrebound by 8 a game a major plus along with home court and the full in effort intact. One stat ironically I like here is that the Thunder assist 3 less and turnover 2 more- to me this means that they have kept the same stats while playing sloppier and will likely tighten up more tonight given A the opponent and B having home court and a day’s rest. The Thunder outsteal, outblock, and use the bench 48% of the time vs. the Cavs 32% of the time. Thunder -2.5 ( maybe buy it to -2) capperwatchdog

12-10-14 NBA PICKS

Best Bets Season Record 58% 72-124

All Games Season Record 57% 124-218

BEST BETS

Spurs -10.5

Parker is questionable to play but so is Carmelo. The Spurs are at home & will hopefully rebound from yesterday’s SU loss. On a home/away basis the Spurs score 8 more and hold teams to 10 less 104-95 Spurs a 9 point margin. The rebound margin is huge however the Spurs outrebound by 8 boards a game. Just hope for no Melo & big bounceback from the Spurs along with both teams playing back-to-back games, the Spurs however being at home.

Clippers -6.5

The Clippers are just on fire winning their last six games by 20, 20, 28, 26, 16, & 17. Granted the Pacers have some people back and Hibbert & West at home can be dangerous- you can’t go against the Clippers fire right now. On paper over the last five games the score reads 112-97 Clippers. The Clippers hit 52% FGs vs. the Pacers 42%, they hit 41% from behind the arc vs. the Pacers 29% they assist to turnover 2.45 a game vs. the Pacers 1.5, & the rebound margin favors the Clippers by 3 45-42 a game. Only negative is the Pacers are at home after a loss & are 7-2 ATS after one day rest and the Clippers are 4-6 ATS after one day rest. Either way can’t go against a team this hot.

Hawks -13

The 76ers may be out Shved & Wroten, these guys aren’t the backbone of the team but they do contribute. The Hawks are on fire & are the best in the east at the moment. The 76ers on the road vs. Teague, Horford, Millsap, Carroll, & Horford is no contest things will come back to normal here. The 76ers will probably turnover the ball 20 times tonight!

Warriors -10.5

Maybe no Bogut, but most likely no Harden or Howard vs. the splash brothers at home. The trend is your friend!

Trailblazers -10.5

The 76ers beat the T-Wolves!

THE OTHER GAMES

Pelicans +7

Hornets -2.5

Magic +4.5

Brooklyn +11.5

Heat +5.5

capperwatchdog

12-09-14 NBA PICKS

Best Bets Season Record 58% 69-119 

Games Season Record 57% 119-210

BEST BETS

Mavericks +3

Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Memphis. On a home-away basis both teams are putting up 106 on offense. Defensively the Grizzlies are holding teams to 96 & the Mavs are holding teams to 101. That’s 104-101 Memphis, about a three point margin. All the stats are pretty close, I just think on a matchup basis the Mavericks could hold within three or possibly win.

Trailblazers -7.5

I don’t like however that the Trailblazers won their last three by 4, 6, & 2! They are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 in Detroit and the Pistons are 0-4 ATS in the last four against Portland. On paper it’s a 5-6 point game favoring the Trailblazers. The Trailblazers assist three more, turnover one less, 5% better field goals, and 3% better from behind the arc. The rebound margin is also about 45-42 a game favoring the Trailblazers. The Pistons let the 76ers& Celtics take them to OT losses in Detroit!

Pelicans -6.5

The stats don’t look so great but the matchup isn’t that bad with NOLA at home, the Knicks are still finding themselves and I’m of the assumption Anthony Davis, Holiday, & Evans run through them at home! The cons- last five games the Pelicans are defending 5 less & giving up 40% three pointers to opposing teams. This could be lethal. The Pros- the Pelicans outrebound by 5, assist more, score 4 more a game, the Pelicans are at home, and the matchup man to man looks good.

Kings +4

Rudy Gay & Collison against Kobe & Boozer with some points! Why not. The Kings don’t have Cousins but I still like it!

Bucks +10

Just too many points! The Bucks will play hard & they have been hitting 50% field goals and 40% threes. The do get outrebounded by 9 that’s pretty dangerous!

THE OTHER GAMES

Spurs -9

Pros – It’s the Spurs & it’s the Jazz!

Cons – No Ginobili or Parker & the Jazz will fight at home!

Raptors +6

Heat +4.5

capperwatchdog

12-04-14 NBA PICKS

Best Bets Season Record 59% 68-116

All Games Season Record 57% 118-207

BEST BETS

Pelicans +8.5

The Pelicans just beat the Thunder with Westbrook & Durant by 8. Over the last five games both teams have been holding opponents to 96 points, but the Warriors have been scoring 106 to the Pelicans 96. On paper it’s 101-96 Golden State. I don’t like that the Warriors are outrebounding by 4, out assisting by 7, & hitting 6% better field goals. Conversely and on a matchup basis I think 8.5 points is a lot seeing as how the Warriors just beat the Magic by 1 at home. Jrue Holiday is one of the top ten point guards in my opinion, and Anthony Davis is to be contended with, along with Tyreke Evans who put up 30 points last game.

Cavaliers -7

The Knicks are horrendous even more so with Carmelo Anthony on the floor. They put up 87 a game and hold teams to 98 vs. the Cavs 106 & 95. That’s roughly 102-92 Cavs on paper. Cavs shoot 50% FGs to the Knicks 41%, the Cavs do get outrebounded by 2 but defensively let up 37 boards to the Knicks horrendous 48. The Cavs also have four more assists a game a three less turnovers. Bottom line both teams are coming in a phase of learning each other and new systems. I just really like the parties involved in the learning process a lot more in the case of the Cavs. Love may be out but most likely will play. The Knicks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Pacers +8.5

Pacers are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Hibbert is back, and this game has a 6 point margin favoring the Trailblazers. The Hibbert Lopez matchup is gonna favor the Pacers!  Pacers have the squad back mostly so take the points!

capperwatchdog

12-03-14 NBA PICKS

Best Bets Season Record 59% 65-111

All Games Season Record 57% 112-197

BEST BETS

Celtics -5

The Pistons on the road isn’t too appealing. They just got handled by the Lakers. The Celtics Rondo & Green will surely put forth a full effort at home. I like the half more than the game but in any case. The home/away stats are 104 Boston offense to a 90 Detroit offense. Defensive the Celtics give up 108 to the Pistons 97, about 100-99 Celtics. The Celtics shoot 47% FGs vs. the Pistons 41%. The Pistons do rebound by 3 more but give up 47 boards a game vs. the Celtics 42 rebounds allowed. The Celtics also grab an extra 7 assists a game. This bet is all about Rondo at home with a team he can Bully.

76ers +7

If ever the 76ers could win a game it would be here. Pekovic may be back and if so it isn’t gonna happen. If Shved doesn’t play this is a dwindling proposition as well. But assuming Pekovic is out it’s a 102-100 T-Wolves game here. Both teams shoot the same field goal and three point percentages, the 76ers out rebound by 4 when the T-Wolves don’t have Pekovic. I think the points have value and pray Pekovic is out and Shved isn’t.

Bucks +4

They have momentum from last night as do the Mavericks. The Mavs just won in Chicago off a double OT. On a home away basis the bucks actually outrebound by 3, and the Mavs are only better by a margin of about 3. Ilyasova might out but I’m hoping home court effort makes up for that.

Spurs -8

Poor poor Nets!

Magic +15

Possible no Vucevic but they did OK last night without him.

THE OTHER GAMES

Heat -4

Bulls -3

Lakers +8.5

Rockets +4.5

Raptors -4

capperwatchdog

12-2-14 NBA PICKS

 

Best Bets Season Record 58% 61-106

All Games Season Record 57% 107-187

BEST BETS

Bucks +11

Pachulia may still be out which is of slight concern. But even without him over the last five games the offensive to defense margins give a total of 99-97 Cavs. Both teams rebound 41 a game, both teams have similar FG percentages, but the Bucks have been 39% from behind the arc, vs. the Cavs 30%. Both teams assist, turnover, block, & steal roughly the same as well. Bottom line 11 points is a lot and the Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after a loss.

Hawks -7

I do like Celtics at the half though. What I don’t like is the Hawks are 6-25 ATS in their last 31 games on two days rest. Guess they need to shake off the rust and have lost momentum. Atalanta scores 9 more a game and gives up 9 less- nothing is a sure shot but what direction would you go?

Nets -1

Mavericks +1

Pacers +6

Trailblazers -3

Magic +13.5

Kings +1.5

THE OTHER GAMES

Pistons +2

Pelicans +2.5

capperwatchdog